FSB: Small business confidence slumps as rising costs pile on the pressure
A targeted VAT cut and a National Insurance Contributions (NICs) holiday must be introduced for small firms as small business confidence fell to -9.3 due to the pressure of weak demand and rising costs, according to the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) ‘Voice of Small Business’ Index.
The Index – which has been a good predictor of the path GDP will take – fell by 9.6 points from +0.3 to -9.3 in the third quarter as more businesses lost confidence in the economy. This news comes just weeks after GDP was revised downwards to 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and ahead of third quarter figures due next week.
And, in more gloomy news, figures last week showed unemployment reached 2.57 million and youth unemployment almost reach the one million barrier. A balance of six per cent more businesses surveyed by the FSB think that they will lay people off in the coming three months, pointing to a further increase in unemployment by the end of the year.
The FSB has long called for the current NICs holiday to be extended to existing businesses across the UK that have fewer than four employees and that employ up to the three more staff.
One in 10 businesses (11%) said that extending the NICs holiday would be an incentive to take on staff, according to recent FSB research. The current NICs holiday is only open to new start ups and has not had the take-up that the Government expected it to, with only 7,000 businesses using it. By extending it, the Government has the opportunity to put more people in a job which in turn would boost the tax base and money to the treasury.
Consumer demand is also a large barrier to economic growth and so the FSB has called for a targeted and time specific VAT cut to encourage people to spend in these areas. The FSB is urging the Government to follow the lead of other EU countries and cut VAT in the construction and tourism sectors to five per cent for a year to help give the economy a real boost.
In addition, a NICs holiday would also offset increasing cost pressures on firms. More than three quarters of the firms surveyed said that their costs had increased in the quarter, mainly due to rising commodity prices as more than half of respondents (57%) cite rising energy costs, and 49 per cent increase in the cost of raw materials as the reason.
John Walker, National Chairman, Federation of Small Businesses, said:
“As businesses come to terms with the double whammy of falling revenues and rising costs, it is no wonder that they’re losing confidence, and unfortunately, as their overheads increase one way to control it is to lay off staff.
“It is the first time since we started the Index that we have seen more people believe that they’re going to lay off staff than take them on. This has to show the Government that a more robust plan for growth is needed.
“Moreover, this is the first time that we have seen confidence in all regions of the UK in negative territory. We urge the Chancellor to look closely at our NICs holiday proposals and bring this forward in his Autumn Statement. We fear that without it, the recovery will falter once more.”
Notes to Editors
The FSB is the UK's leading business organisation with more than 200,000 members. It exists to protect and promote the interests of the self-employed, and all those who run their own business. More information is available at www.fsb.org.uk
The FSB ‘Voice of Small Business’ Index is a quarterly macro-economic report analysing the trends of small businesses in the UK market. To view the ‘FSB Voice of Small Business’ Index please go to www.fsb.org.uk/small-business-index
This report has been produced by the centre for economic and business research (cebr). The report is based on 1,673 responses from the September 2011 FSB ‘Voice of Small Business’ Survey Panel of FSB members which took place between 12 and 23 September 2011.
NICs take up figures is based on 1,772 responses from the May 2011 FSB ‘Voice of Small Business’ Survey Panel of FSB members which took place between 11 and 24 May 2011. For full results, go to www.fsb.org.uk/fsb-survey-panel
Current Government NICs holiday take up figures from an answer David Cameron supplied in Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday 12 October 2011.
The Q4 2011 ‘Voice of Small Business’ Index will be released on Monday 16 January 2012.
For regional FSB contacts please go to www.fsb.org.uk/regions