Poll shock: Is this the long promised Tory swing?

An ICM/Guardian poll has put the Conservatives four points ahead of Labour, raising expectations among some political pundits of a long-promised swing to the governing party.

The poll puts the Tories on 36% (up six), Labour on 32% (down one), the Lib Dems on ten per cent (down one), Ukip on nine per cent (down two) and the Greens on seven per cent (down two).

Many pundits and election strategists had predicted a significant poll improvement for the Tories in the run up to polling day and warned Labour it would need a firm poll lead to be able to combat a resurgent Tory party.

But it is unclear if today's shock poll is proof of that trend or just an anomaly.

The latest poll from ComRes put Labour two points ahead, Opinium put them two points ahead, Populus put them three points ahead and YouGov put them three points ahead.