Most Tories don’t believe they can win election

A majority of Conservative supporters believe Labour will win the next election, according to a new poll.

The Independent poll by ConservativeHome showed 53% of members believe Labour will be in office, compared to 47% who think it will be the Conservatives.

Twenty-two per cent of members believe a Liberal-Labour coalition will win in 2015, while 20% believe Labour will secure a majority in its own right and 11% expect a minority Labour government.

Twenty per cent believe the Tories can secure a majority, while 19% expect a minority Tory government and eight per cent another Liberal-Conservative coalition.

Just one per cent of Conservatives want the coalition to last past the general election, while 20% want it to end immediately.

Forty-one per cent of respondents said they wanted the coalition to end just before the general election, so both parties can set out their programme to voters.

David Cameron still enjoys strong support from Tory members, despite the growing rebelliousness of Tory MPs.

Forty-nine per cent believe he should lead the party into the 2015 election, compared to just 18% for his nearest rival, Boris Johnson.

He is followed by foreign secretary William Hague on 12% and former home secretary David Davies on ten per cent.

Johnson is favoured to eventually take over from Cameron, however, with 32% backing him. Hague is backed by 24% and Michael Gove by 19%.
George Osborne's popularity has been damaged by the disastrous Budget, with just two per cent backing a future leadership bid from the chancellor.